Philip O'Sullivan's Market Musings

Financial analysis from Dublin, Ireland

Market Musings 5/1/2012

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Ireland released its final set of Exchequer Returns data for 2011. The deficit works out at €5,439 for every person in the country. Regular readers of the blog will know well my sense of horror at this position and my view that the fiscal jaws need to be closed a lot faster (and tighter) than what the government’s medium term fiscal strategy proposes. In terms of the public finances, I have noticed over the past year a tendency on the part of certain commentators to suggest that the public finances are in the state they’re in purely because of the cost of bank recaps. While there is no denying that these play a role, let’s take a proper look at what the underlying fiscal position is, based on Exchequer Returns data for 2011.

 

  1. Total receipts for the year came to €36.8bn. Total current expenditure came to €48.0bn, leaving a deficit on the current account of €11.2bn.
  2. On the capital side, total receipts were €2.5bn and total expenditure came to €16.2bn. This produced a deficit on the capital account of €13.7bn.
  3. The total reported Exchequer deficit for the year was €24.9bn, which is the product of the result of (1) and (2) above.
  4. Contained within the Exchequer’s €36.8bn receipts for the year as a whole are the following: Income from the various guarantee schemes (paid by the banks) of €1.2bn; proceeds of €1.0bn from selling Bank of Ireland shares and bank recap fees of €0.05bn. So a ballpark €2.25bn in revenue came from the banks, leaving underlying revenues at €34.5bn. I am ignoring other taxes paid by the banks as these would have been paid anyway.
  5. Contained with the Exchequer’s €64.2bn spending for the year as a whole are the following: Acquisition of shares in IL&P €2.3bn; Promissory Notes €3.1bn; Bank Recap payments €5.3bn; Contribution to Credit Resolution Fund €0.25bn. This gives a ballpark direct cost of €11bn from the banks, or slightly more than one-sixth of total expenditure. Stripping out this leaves underlying expenditure at €53.2bn.
  6. Taking (5) away from (4) above produces an underlying deficit for the year of €18.7bn. Put another way, roughly 75% of the Exchequer Deficit for 2011 was not directly caused by the cost of bank recaps. Now, obviously, some of the deficit was indirectly caused by the banks e.g. interest payments on borrowings used to bail them out in previous years, while in addition the effect of the banks’ implosion on the state of the economy is clearly very material.

 

The above analysis is merely offered as a way of illustrating that there are more moving parts to our fiscal position than simply “bailing out the banks”.

 

Staying on the fiscal theme, Britain’s Defence Secretary says the debt crisis should be considered the greatest strategic threat to the future security of the West. Across the Atlantic, the US is reportedly considering ending its policy of having the resources to fight two major ground wars simultaneously, which is no surprise given the country’s ugly fiscal position. One of the most striking things about the US’ overseas military deployments is how lopsided they are – it makes no sense for the US to have 80 times more troops in Europe than it has in Africa, and neither does it make any sense to have nearly twice as many troops in Germany than in South Korea.

 

Following on from the bearish tack on Irish house prices I expressed in my last blog, here’s a fine piece by Cormac Lucey on the outlook for same.

 

Some 500 hedge funds have been attracted to Malta. Given our shared EU membership and the collapse in property costs here, there is no reason why Ireland shouldn’t be trying to attract these sort of companies to the IFSC.

 

This is an interesting article – Sweden shows Europe how to cut debt and weather the recession.

 

(Disclaimer: I am a shareholder in Ryanair plc) Switching to equities, Ryanair issued December passenger stats today. Reported traffic was -5%, in line with company guidance for winter of a decline of approximately 5%. However, given that November’s statistics were better than expected, at -8% versus company expectations of -10%, I wonder if there is some potential for outperformance on the passenger side as we head towards Ryanair’s financial year-end in March.

 

Finally, in the blogosphere John McElligott asks if Eurozone equities offer good value here. In the interests of transparency I should disclose that I own most of the stocks he identifies as being cheap in Ireland, namely: Bank of Ireland, Independent News & Media, Total Produce and Abbey.

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Written by Philip O'Sullivan

January 5, 2012 at 5:32 pm

One Response

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  1. […] bank debt etc., the fiscal situation would look pretty grim anyway. Philip O’Sullivan had a great post about this the other day. That’s certainly enough to tackle now, and in the next few years, but […]


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