Philip O'Sullivan's Market Musings

Financial analysis from Dublin, Ireland

Market Musings 19/4/2012

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What an eventful 48 hours it’s been since my last update!


(Disclaimer: I am a shareholder in Independent News & Media plc and Trinity Mirror plc) The media sector has produced much excitement, with boardroom ructions and rumours of stakebuilding to the fore. This morning two large prints in INM – one for 10m shares, the other for 3m, were recorded. Combined this is equivalent to 2.4% of the company. RTE hints that the buyer is not connected to the three billionaires (Tony O’Reilly & family, Dermot Desmond and Denis O’Brien) on the INM register, which adds a further touch of intrigue to the stock. This evening it was confirmed that Gavin O’Reilly has stepped down as INM CEO, to be replaced by Vincent Crowley. I welcome Crowley’s appointment – I met him quite a few times when I covered INM as a sell-side analyst some years ago and was very impressed by him. He has a good reputation for tight cost management (earned at a time when the Irish economy was thriving and few executives here were as focused on cost take-out as he was back then) and any strong action by him on this front could see a decent re-rating for the stock, which is capitalised at only €134m. I take encouragement from INM’s statement this evening that Crowley “has the unanimous support of the Board”, which hopefully will put to rest the ugly (and very public) feuding that has made the underlying performance of the group something of a side-show for too long. In an ideal world this change will pave the way for the group to focus 100% on the main task at hand, i.e. maximising cash generation to fix the balance sheet and enhance shareholder value. Elsewhere in the media sector, in the UK DMGT’s trading update revealed weakening trends in the past three months, which doesn’t bode well for the likes of Trinity Mirror and Johnston Press.


(Disclaimer: I am a shareholder in Tesco plc) Tesco released its results and a strategy update. The results were in line, and management sees the 2012/13 performance (yes, I know it’s early days) meeting forecasts. On the strategy front, there was nothing new that I saw given the extensive media previews / leaks (delete where applicable) in the run up to the official announcement. Obviously time will tell if the strategic objectives are met, but I’m willing to give Tesco the benefit of the doubt given its proven track record, strong brand (I know some people dispute this, but I doubt they’d slap Tesco as a prefix to all sorts of new ventures if the brand wasn’t that good) and solid market positions in many of its key geographies. Many analysts seem to concur. Valuhunter did up a good piece on Tesco here that’s worth a look.


This is absolutely brilliant – check out Paddy Power’s comic-book style annual report.


For those of you who follow the oil sector, Dragon Oil’s CEO made some interesting comments about its future strategy in this video interview.


(Disclaimer: I am a shareholder in Abbey plc) Following on from recent upbeat comments from Telford Homes, Persimmon issued an IMS laden with news of rising orders, margins and cashflow. This all gives me further comfort on my position in Abbey.


On the macro front, I was interested to read that authorities zoned enough land for residential to accommodate double the population of Ireland. I’d love to find the genius who thought it would be a good idea to have local councils give an input into this process.


Speaking of housing, Chinese house prices fell in 46 of the 70 biggest cities month-on-month in March (in 37 out of the 70 on a year-on-year basis). I have repeatedly identified this area as a serious problem for China, most recently here.


And finally, here’s the IMF’s ultimate guide to which countries are the most vulnerable in terms of debt/leverage. No surprise to see Ireland is covered in red ink.


Written by Philip O'Sullivan

April 19, 2012 at 5:22 pm

One Response

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  1. […] I am a shareholder in Abbey plc) Switching to the construction sector, I’ve recently noted improving newsflow from the UK housebuilders, which bodes well for Irish listed (but chiefly […]

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