Market Musings 13/9/11

Since my last update, my attention has mainly been caught by some really excellent original research from some of the other bloggers covering UK and Irish equities, M&A activity and further signs of the ongoing stress around peripheral Europe.

 

One story I missed over the weekend with all the travelling was this report that Origin Enterprises has been on the receiving end of an approach from a private equity player. The suggested price, £400m, looks implausibly low given that this places the group on a PE ratio of only about 8x. The group, which is rapidly deleveraging, is worth a lot more than that given that it is well placed to benefit from the structural growth opportunity in farming due to its strong positions in the areas of agronomy and farm inputs. It should be noted that Origin is 71% owned by Aryzta.

 

While I’m dubious about the Origin story, one genuine M&A story is the news that Kerry Group has expanded its ingredients operations in the EMEA region with the purchase of SuCrest. This is the type of tasty bolt-on that Kerry is particularly good at doing, and serves as a useful reminder of its considerable scope to expand through acquisition.

 

IFG shares crashed 26% to €1.20 today after announcing that takeover talks with Bregal Capital have ended. This puts IFG on an PE ratio of circa 6x, which is simply too low for a company with annuity-style revenues and a very strong balance sheet. Of course, the obvious question is what the catalyst to drive the shares from here is going to be, but for patient, longer-term investors, you are unlikely to go wrong with this stock.

 

There were more signs of stress in peripheral Europe, which make the political response to date look even more ridiculous. Last night Bloomberg reported that the Greek default risk had soared to 98%, while the Greek 1 year bond yield stood at over 117%. Italy, meanwhile, looks like it is trying to sell off the family silver to China. France’s banks have been battered by concerns over their exposure to Europe’s weaker regions. This chart shows how the market is seemingly adopting a “one size fits all” approach to SocGen and BNP – I recall seeing similar identical trading patterns in the Irish banks once upon a time.

 

Bizarrely, despite the debt worries, many investors continue to favour government bonds over equities at a time when corporate balance sheets have never been stronger!

 

(Disclaimer: I am a shareholder in Trinity Mirror plc) The wonderful Expecting Value blog had a great piece on regional newspaper group Johnston Press yesterday. Regular readers of this blog will know that my current preference in the UK media sector is Trinity Mirror. Comparing the two, I prefer Trinity Mirror due to its much stronger balance sheet (net debt + pension deficit at the H1 stage for TNI was £336m vs. £430m for JPR), better profitability (consensus EBIT figures for TNI and JPR for the current financial year stand at £97m and £73.8m respectively), and better brands (a mixture of national and regional versus regional).

 

(Disclaimer: I am a shareholder in Abbey plc) Another great blog is my only domestic peer (that I’m aware of) John McElligott’s “Value Stock Inquisition“. Yesterday he wrote a good piece on the UK listed housebuilders, concluding that while the sector is not yet right to buy into, Abbey looks the most attractive. He’s in good company with this view, see here for my previous musings on the stock.

 

Last, but certainly not least, UK Value Investor has a good analysis of BHP Billiton today that’s worth a read. I bought it for sub-£10 a share a few years ago and sold out at £17, so while I feel a bit foolish for missing its continued ascent since then, my bearish views on China mean that it’s not one I’m likely to buy into up here. Perhaps if it goes below £10 again it might look interesting to me.